Nijmegen vs Feyenoord
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 16:30 CET
LWLWW
DWWDWThe score model makes a Feyenoord win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Feyenoord win — 40.5% vs 38.4% implied (+2.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nijmegen 1.66 – 1.79 Feyenoord.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nijmegen win | 35.3% | 36.9% | -1.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 24.7% | -0.5% |
| Feyenoord win | 40.5% | 38.4% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.3% | 44.5% | +0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.3% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nijmegen 43.5 / Feyenoord 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.