Ajax vs PSV
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 20:00 CET
DWWDW
WDWWWThe score model makes a PSV win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). The data's biggest gap to the market: PSV win — 44.0% vs 39.5% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ajax 1.73 – 2.00 PSV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 33.1% | 36.4% | -3.3% |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.1% | -1.2% |
| PSV win | 44.0% | 39.5% | +4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | 70.7% | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.2% | 51.5% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 71.9% | 71.4% | +0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.1% | 49.3% | +3.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ajax 44.2 / PSV 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.