Difaa El Jadidi vs Moghreb Tetouan
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-17 · 22:00 CET
DLLLW
LLDDDThe score model makes a Difaa El Jadidi win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Difaa El Jadidi 1.24 – 1.01 Moghreb Tetouan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Difaa El Jadidi win | 39.8% | — | — |
| Draw | 32.2% | — | — |
| Moghreb Tetouan win | 28.0% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Difaa El Jadidi 34.1 / Moghreb Tetouan 18.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.