IR Tanger vs Maghreb Fez
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-14 · 22:00 CET
LWWDL
DWWWDThe score model makes a Maghreb Fez win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 69.3% vs 42.8% implied (+26.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: IR Tanger 0.78 – 1.16 Maghreb Fez.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IR Tanger win | 22.9% | 26.6% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 34.4% | 24.0% | +10.4% |
| Maghreb Fez win | 42.7% | 49.4% | -6.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.7% | 57.2% | -26.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.2% | 34.6% | -21.4% |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 58.7% | -19.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.4% | 44.2% | -22.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: IR Tanger 39.1 / Maghreb Fez 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.