Berkane vs Renaissance Zemamra
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-13 · 20:00 CET
LWWDD
DDLLLThe score model made a Berkane win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Berkane 1.55 – 0.71 Renaissance Zemamra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkane win | 56.0% | 57.2% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.9% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Renaissance Zemamra win | 15.3% | 16.9% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 43.5% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 23.6% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 41.6% | 43.2% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 29.8% | -4.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Berkane 38.1 / Renaissance Zemamra 37.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.