Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-12 · 22:00 CET
LDWLW
DDLDWThe score model made an FAR Rabat win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hassania Agadir 0.91 – 1.77 FAR Rabat.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassania Agadir win | 17.5% | 22.9% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 28.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| FAR Rabat win | 56.0% | 48.8% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 46.6% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 26.7% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 50.1% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 32.2% | +4.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hassania Agadir 39.2 / FAR Rabat 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.