Kawkab Marrakech vs IR Tanger
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-10 · 19:00 CET
DDDLW
DLWWDThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kawkab Marrakech 0.98 – 0.80 IR Tanger.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawkab Marrakech win | 36.5% | 36.8% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 36.7% | 34.1% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| IR Tanger win | 26.8% | 29.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.4% | 32.9% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.5% | 15.8% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.3% | 42.1% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 24.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kawkab Marrakech 22.7 / IR Tanger 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.