Zalgiris vs Kauno Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-16 · 17:45 CET
DWLWW
WWLWWThe score model made a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zalgiris 1.10 – 1.38 Kauno Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris win | 29.0% | 28.6% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 27.0% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 42.2% | 44.4% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 51.6% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 31.1% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 55.6% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 36.2% | -5.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zalgiris 51.2 / Kauno Zalgiris 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Zalgiris vs Kauno Zalgiris in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.