Suduva vs Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-13 · 17:45 CET
WLDDL
DWLWWThe score model made a Suduva win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Suduva 1.23 – 1.20 Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva win | 36.1% | 36.1% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.5% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Zalgiris win | 34.6% | 35.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 49.9% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 29.8% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 54.9% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 34.6% | -8.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Suduva 51.3 / Zalgiris 50.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Suduva vs Zalgiris in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.