FK Panevezys vs Kauno Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-13 · 13:30 CET
WWWLW
WWWLWThe score model made a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 0.95 – 1.61 Kauno Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Panevezys win | 21.4% | 18.5% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 24.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 52.1% | 57.3% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 52.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.5% | 32.8% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 51.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 37.1% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Panevezys 52.3 / Kauno Zalgiris 50.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FK Panevezys vs Kauno Zalgiris in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.