FA Siauliai vs Hegelmann
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-13 · 16:00 CET
LLLDL
DLDDLThe score model made a Hegelmann win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FA Siauliai 1.18 – 1.87 Hegelmann.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA Siauliai win | 23.3% | 35.0% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 27.9% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Hegelmann win | 52.7% | 37.2% | +15.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 52.7% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 33.0% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 57.3% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 36.9% | +3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FA Siauliai 23.8 / Hegelmann 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FA Siauliai vs Hegelmann in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.