Kauno Zalgiris vs Suduva
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-09 · 17:45 CET
WWWLW
WLDDLThe score model made a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kauno Zalgiris 1.36 – 0.84 Suduva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 47.9% | 46.2% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.0% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Suduva win | 22.4% | 25.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 45.7% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 26.3% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 50.1% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 32.3% | -11.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kauno Zalgiris 49.8 / Suduva 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.