Hegelmann vs FK Panevezys
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-07 · 17:45 CET
DDLDD
LWWWLThe score model made a Hegelmann win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hegelmann 1.48 – 1.29 FK Panevezys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann win | 40.7% | 30.8% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.8% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| FK Panevezys win | 32.4% | 41.4% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 50.0% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 30.0% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 54.2% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 35.1% | +5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hegelmann 50.8 / FK Panevezys 52 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.