Transinvest vs Suduva
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
DWLWW
WLDDLThe score model made a Suduva win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Transinvest 1.15 – 1.19 Suduva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transinvest win | 34.0% | 29.5% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.1% | 28.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Suduva win | 35.9% | 41.6% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 46.0% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 26.5% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 51.7% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 32.2% | -9.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Transinvest 30.1 / Suduva 50 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.