Kauno Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-06 · 17:45 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 60%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kauno Zalgiris 1.70 – 0.74 Dziugas Telsiai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 59.6% | 64.1% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 22.0% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 15.0% | 13.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 51.0% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 30.6% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | 46.3% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 35.6% | -8.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kauno Zalgiris 49.1 / Dziugas Telsiai 51.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.