Inter vs Udinese
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-14 · 20:45 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made an Inter win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 5:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter 2.40 – 0.84 Udinese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 72.0% | 78.5% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.9% | 14.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Udinese win | 11.2% | 7.0% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 67.1% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% | 47.0% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 48.4% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 45.5% | -8.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inter 47.6 / Udinese 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Inter vs Udinese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.