Inter vs Udinese
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-14 · 20:45 CET
DDWWW
LLDWLThe score model makes an Inter win the most likely outcome at 72%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 51.9% vs 47.5% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter 2.42 – 0.84 Udinese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 72.1% | 73.5% | -1.4% |
| Draw | 16.8% | 17.3% | -0.5% |
| Udinese win | 11.2% | 9.2% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 60.1% | +3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.0% | 39.4% | +1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 47.5% | +4.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 41.1% | -3.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inter 48.2 / Udinese 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.