Como vs Parma
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-14 · 18:30 CET
WWLDW
DLWLLThe score model made a Como win the most likely outcome at 63%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Como 1.74 – 0.65 Parma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como win | 63.5% | 77.4% | -13.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 15.4% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Parma win | 13.5% | 7.2% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 59.3% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 38.4% | -16.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.5% | 42.4% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 40.1% | -16.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Como 39 / Parma 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Como vs Parma in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.