Sassuolo vs Juventus
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 20:45 CET
LLLWD
LDWWDThe score model makes a Juventus win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.6% vs 68.6% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sassuolo 0.95 – 1.65 Juventus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 21.5% | 16.8% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 23.8% | +0.9% |
| Juventus win | 53.8% | 59.4% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 52.2% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 31.4% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 50.4% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 35.2% | -3.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sassuolo 36.1 / Juventus 48.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.