Napoli vs Bologna
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 18:00 CET
LWDWL
DLDWLThe score model made a Napoli win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Napoli 1.51 – 0.98 Bologna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 49.4% | 50.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 26.8% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Bologna win | 24.4% | 22.5% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 49.1% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 29.4% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 52.8% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 33.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Napoli 47.7 / Bologna 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Napoli vs Bologna in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.