Venezia vs Fiorentina
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
LLLLW
LWDLLThe score model made a Fiorentina win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Venezia 0.98 – 1.49 Fiorentina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia win | 24.8% | 35.3% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Fiorentina win | 48.9% | 36.8% | +12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 58.6% | -13.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 38.3% | -14.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 62.8% | -14.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 39.2% | -14.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Venezia 15 / Fiorentina 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Venezia vs Fiorentina in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.