Tiszakecske vs Szentlorinc
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-09-05 · 19:00 CET
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LLLWLThe score model made a Tiszakecske win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tiszakecske 1.45 – 1.18 Szentlorinc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiszakecske win | 43.4% | 53.4% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.7% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Szentlorinc win | 30.9% | 21.0% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 51.9% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 32.4% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 53.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 36.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tiszakecske 32.5 / Szentlorinc 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.