Kazincbarcika vs Kecskemeti TE
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WDDLW
WWWDWThe score model made a Kazincbarcika win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kazincbarcika 1.51 – 1.32 Kecskemeti TE.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazincbarcika win | 42.0% | 28.1% | +13.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 27.4% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Kecskemeti TE win | 33.3% | 44.4% | -11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 49.5% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 29.6% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 53.9% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 34.3% | +0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kazincbarcika 23.1 / Kecskemeti TE 24.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.