Gyirmot vs Karcagi
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-09-05 · 18:00 CET
LLWLW
WWLDLThe score model made a Gyirmot win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gyirmot 1.69 – 1.33 Karcagi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyirmot win | 46.1% | 53.4% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Karcagi win | 30.3% | 21.2% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 51.9% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 32.1% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 53.3% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 36.2% | -3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gyirmot 23.2 / Karcagi 24.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.