Ajka vs Soroksar
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-09-05 · 17:00 CET
WWLWL
WWWWDThe score model made a Soroksar win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ajka 1.13 – 1.22 Soroksar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajka win | 33.9% | 35.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 28.9% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Soroksar win | 38.4% | 35.5% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 50.3% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 32.4% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 56.1% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 35.5% | -3.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ajka 41.1 / Soroksar 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.