Bayer Leverkusen W vs Bayern Munich W
Frauen-Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-14 · 18:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Bayern Munich W win the most likely outcome at 69%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen W 0.66 – 2.00 Bayern Munich W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen W win | 11.0% | 12.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 18.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Bayern Munich W win | 68.8% | 68.7% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 62.4% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 42.7% | -15.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.0% | 52.5% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 43.2% | -13.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bayer Leverkusen W 31.3 / Bayern Munich W 31.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.