Werder Bremen W vs RB Leipzig W
Frauen-Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-30 · 18:30 CET
LWWWW
LLDLLThe score model made a Werder Bremen W win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Werder Bremen W 1.71 – 1.19 RB Leipzig W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen W win | 49.0% | 45.2% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| RB Leipzig W win | 26.4% | 28.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 56.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.0% | 36.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 59.3% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 39.1% | -2.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Werder Bremen W 30.3 / RB Leipzig W 28.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.