Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W
Frauen-Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
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WLLLLThe score model made a Freiburg W win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Freiburg W 1.92 – 1.63 Union Berlin W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg W win | 44.6% | 37.6% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 25.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Union Berlin W win | 32.7% | 36.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | 59.4% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.3% | 39.3% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 62.4% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 41.1% | +4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Freiburg W 30.2 / Union Berlin W 17.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.