Valenciennes vs Fleury-Merogis
National, France · 2026-09-12 · 14:45 CET
LLWLD
WWWDLThe score model made a Fleury-Merogis win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valenciennes 1.04 – 1.69 Fleury-Merogis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 21.8% | 39.7% | -17.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 28.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Fleury-Merogis win | 51.1% | 31.7% | +19.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 48.3% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 28.4% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 53.3% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 32.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valenciennes 34.8 / Fleury-Merogis 25.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Valenciennes vs Fleury-Merogis in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.