Quevilly Rouen vs Le Puy-en-Velay
National, France · 2026-09-12 · 14:45 CET
WDDLW
LWLWWThe score model made a Le Puy-en-Velay win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Quevilly Rouen 1.02 – 1.31 Le Puy-en-Velay.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quevilly Rouen win | 27.3% | 35.6% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 29.7% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Le Puy-en-Velay win | 41.5% | 34.8% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 46.4% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 26.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 52.7% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 32.2% | +10.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Quevilly Rouen 35 / Le Puy-en-Velay 25.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Quevilly Rouen vs Le Puy-en-Velay in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.