Orleans vs Versailles
National, France · 2026-09-12 · 14:45 CET
LLDDL
WDWWWThe score model made an Orleans win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orleans 1.42 – 1.20 Versailles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans win | 40.5% | 34.7% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.2% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Versailles win | 30.2% | 37.0% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 52.1% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 31.9% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 57.0% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 35.6% | -2.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orleans 43.3 / Versailles 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Orleans vs Versailles in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.