Paris 13 Atl. vs Aubagne
National, France · 2026-09-05 · 14:45 CET
DLDWL
LLWWLThe score model made a Paris 13 Atl. win the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paris 13 Atl. 1.05 – 1.04 Aubagne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris 13 Atl. win | 33.7% | 42.3% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.1% | 31.2% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Aubagne win | 33.2% | 26.5% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.8% | 38.7% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.0% | 20.1% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | 44.9% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 28.3% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paris 13 Atl. 36.5 / Aubagne 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.