Le Puy-en-Velay vs Orleans
National, France · 2026-09-05 · 14:45 CET
DLWLW
DLLDDThe score model made a Le Puy-en-Velay win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Le Puy-en-Velay 1.39 – 1.09 Orleans.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Puy-en-Velay win | 42.4% | 40.2% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.1% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Orleans win | 28.0% | 30.6% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 47.7% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 27.3% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 52.6% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 32.8% | +0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Le Puy-en-Velay 24.1 / Orleans 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.