Fleury-Merogis vs Villefranche
National, France · 2026-09-05 · 14:45 CET
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LDLLLThe score model made a Fleury-Merogis win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 6:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fleury-Merogis 1.62 – 0.87 Villefranche.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleury-Merogis win | 53.8% | 50.2% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.8% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Villefranche win | 18.8% | 23.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 50.0% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 30.0% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 52.3% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 34.1% | -5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fleury-Merogis 24.2 / Villefranche 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.