Bourg en Bresse vs Caen
National, France · 2026-09-05 · 14:45 CET
LLDDL
WWLWLThe score model made a Caen win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bourg en Bresse 0.84 – 1.26 Caen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bourg en Bresse win | 23.4% | 25.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 26.7% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Caen win | 44.5% | 47.4% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.0% | 51.5% | -16.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.1% | 30.5% | -14.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 54.4% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 35.1% | -11.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bourg en Bresse 36.6 / Caen 24 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.