Brest vs PSG
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-13 · 20:45 CET
LDDDW
WLDDLThe score model makes a PSG win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 61.4% vs 54.1% implied (+7.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brest 1.15 – 2.21 PSG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest win | 18.3% | 12.0% | +6.3% |
| Draw | 20.8% | 17.6% | +3.3% |
| PSG win | 60.8% | 70.4% | -9.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 65.3% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.3% | 44.5% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 54.1% | +7.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.2% | 44.3% | +4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brest 43.5 / PSG 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.