Brest vs PSG
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-13 · 20:45 CET
WLLWD
LWWWWThe score model made a PSG win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brest 1.16 – 2.23 PSG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest win | 18.3% | 8.7% | +9.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 14.6% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| PSG win | 61.0% | 76.6% | -15.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 69.1% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.9% | 49.0% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 53.6% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.8% | 47.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brest 42.8 / PSG 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brest vs PSG in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.