Strasbourg vs Monaco
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-12 · 17:15 CET
WDLLL
WDWDLThe score model made a Strasbourg win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.75 – 1.69 Monaco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg win | 39.4% | 29.0% | +10.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.0% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Monaco win | 37.1% | 46.0% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | 61.5% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.1% | 40.8% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | 63.3% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 41.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Strasbourg 42.9 / Monaco 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Strasbourg vs Monaco in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.