Lorient vs Toulouse
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-12 · 20:45 CET
WLDLW
WDLDLThe score model makes a Lorient win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.9% vs 67.4% implied (+4.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lorient 1.38 – 1.20 Toulouse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 40.2% | 36.0% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 29.2% | -1.3% |
| Toulouse win | 31.9% | 34.8% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 47.9% | -0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 28.0% | -2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 53.7% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 32.6% | -4.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lorient 32.6 / Toulouse 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.