Le Havre vs Angers
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-12 · 20:45 CET
LWLDL
DDLWLThe score model makes a Le Havre win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 65.4% vs 56.7% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Le Havre 1.19 – 0.90 Angers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre win | 41.9% | 42.9% | -1.1% |
| Draw | 31.3% | 29.1% | +2.1% |
| Angers win | 26.9% | 27.9% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.6% | 43.3% | -8.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 23.6% | -7.8% |
| Both teams to score | 42.0% | 48.8% | -6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 29.8% | -3.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Le Havre 40.8 / Angers 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.