Rennes vs Marseille
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
WLDWW
WWWLLThe score model makes a Rennes win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 67.8% vs 61.1% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rennes 1.79 – 1.70 Marseille.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes win | 40.2% | 43.5% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.9% | -1.5% |
| Marseille win | 36.4% | 31.6% | +4.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | 61.1% | +6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.3% | 40.4% | +5.8% |
| Both teams to score | 68.7% | 63.4% | +5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 41.6% | -0.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rennes 43.3 / Marseille 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.