Rennes vs Marseille
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
WWLWL
LLLWWThe score model made a Rennes win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rennes 1.79 – 1.70 Marseille.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes win | 40.0% | 45.0% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Marseille win | 36.5% | 30.1% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | 65.0% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.2% | 45.1% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.7% | 66.3% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 44.8% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rennes 42.9 / Marseille 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rennes vs Marseille in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.