PSG W vs Nantes W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-18 · 21:00 CET
WWLWW
DDLLDThe score model made a PSG W win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PSG W 2.33 – 0.84 Nantes W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG W win | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Nantes W win | 11.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 66.2% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.1% | 46.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 48.2% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 47.0% | -6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PSG W 28.2 / Nantes W 23.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.