Paris FC W vs Nantes W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
WWWWL
LWDDLThe score model made a Paris FC W win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paris FC W 2.25 – 0.94 Nantes W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC W win | 66.7% | 70.5% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.3% | 18.4% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Nantes W win | 14.0% | 11.1% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.8% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paris FC W 27.8 / Nantes W 21.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.