Lens W vs PSG W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-05 · 20:00 CET
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WWWWLThe score model made a PSG W win the most likely outcome at 81%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lens W 0.68 – 2.82 PSG W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens W win | 6.1% | 8.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 12.7% | 15.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| PSG W win | 81.2% | 76.1% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lens W 13.9 / PSG W 27 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.