SJK Akatemia vs JaPS
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-09-06 · 17:00 CET
LDLDW
WLWLLThe score model made an SJK Akatemia win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK Akatemia 1.32 – 1.31 JaPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK Akatemia win | 37.5% | 30.5% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.0% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| JaPS win | 37.0% | 43.5% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 55.4% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 35.1% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 58.2% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 37.1% | -10.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK Akatemia 38.7 / JaPS 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.