PK-35 vs Ekenas
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-09-04 · 18:00 CET
DWLDL
DDLDLThe score model made a PK-35 win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PK-35 1.62 – 0.93 Ekenas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PK-35 win | 54.2% | 54.5% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.3% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Ekenas win | 22.1% | 21.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 56.5% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 35.7% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 56.1% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 38.4% | -14.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PK-35 36.4 / Ekenas 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.