Jippo vs KTP
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-09-04 · 17:30 CET
LWLDW
WWWWDThe score model made a KTP win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jippo 1.16 – 1.24 KTP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jippo win | 34.6% | 34.8% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.4% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| KTP win | 38.9% | 37.7% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 51.6% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 31.2% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 56.1% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 35.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jippo 36.4 / KTP 24.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.