Manchester Utd W vs Manchester City W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-10-25 · 19:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model makes a Manchester City W win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Manchester Utd W win — 28.3% vs 17.8% implied (+10.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Manchester Utd W 1.30 – 1.78 Manchester City W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Utd W win | 28.3% | 17.8% | +10.5% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 21.0% | +1.8% |
| Manchester City W win | 48.8% | 61.1% | -12.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 65.1% | -5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 44.3% | -7.1% |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 59.7% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.0% | 44.2% | +2.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Manchester Utd W 29.8 / Manchester City W 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.