Liverpool W vs London City Lionesses W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-10-25 · 15:00 CET
DLWLL
LWWWWThe score model makes a London City Lionesses W win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Liverpool W win — 29.9% vs 24.3% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liverpool W 1.18 – 1.51 London City Lionesses W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool W win | 29.9% | 24.3% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.3% | -0.3% |
| London City Lionesses W win | 45.1% | 50.4% | -5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 53.9% | -3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 33.3% | -4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 55.9% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 36.5% | +3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liverpool W 29.8 / London City Lionesses W 18.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.