Everton W vs Aston Villa W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-10-25 · 15:00 CET
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LDLDWThe score model makes an Everton W win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.4% vs 66.4% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Everton W 1.46 – 1.24 Aston Villa W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton W win | 42.5% | 43.7% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.5% | -0.3% |
| Aston Villa W win | 32.3% | 30.8% | +1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 54.2% | -3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 33.6% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 57.1% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 36.6% | -2.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Everton W 29.7 / Aston Villa W 29.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Everton W vs Aston Villa W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.