Tottenham W vs Arsenal W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-10-24 · 13:45 CET
DWWLL
DDLLDThe score model makes an Arsenal W win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Arsenal W win — 67.1% vs 59.8% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tottenham W 1.15 – 2.51 Arsenal W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham W win | 15.7% | 19.2% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 17.2% | 21.1% | -3.9% |
| Arsenal W win | 67.1% | 59.8% | +7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | 64.9% | +5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.8% | 44.3% | +5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 61.0% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 44.1% | -0.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tottenham W 29.8 / Arsenal W 30 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tottenham W vs Arsenal W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.