Brighton W vs West Ham W
Women's Super League, England · 2026-10-24 · 18:15 CET
DDLWL
WLLLWThe score model makes a Brighton W win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.9% vs 55.8% implied (+12.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brighton W 1.73 – 1.12 West Ham W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton W win | 51.8% | 67.2% | -15.3% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 19.0% | +4.3% |
| West Ham W win | 24.8% | 13.8% | +11.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 63.2% | -8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 44.2% | -12.1% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 55.1% | +0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 44.2% | -9.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brighton W 29.9 / West Ham W 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brighton W vs West Ham W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.